The Silent Plurality

Last Post

2008-08-12T15:58:00.000-05:00

I predict Barack Obama will win the Presidency with an Electoral victory of 277 to 261. Ohio, I think, will stay red, but Colorado, Virginia, and Iowa will turn blue (if not Virginia, then I think Indiana may turn around). There is the possibility of a larger Obama victory, but it's stayed tight so far.

Since you won't have my posts to read anymore, you should get your news from these two guys:

Andrew Sullivan at The Atlantic
Ben Smith at Politico

They're the best.

Article of the Year

2008-08-08T12:01:00.000-05:00

(even though it's from 2007)

From "Goodbye to All That" by Andrew Sullivan:

The logic behind the candidacy of Barack Obama is not, in the end, about Barack Obama. It has little to do with his policy proposals, which are very close to his Democratic rivals’ and which, with a few exceptions, exist firmly within the conventions of our politics. It has little to do with Obama’s considerable skills as a conciliator, legislator, or even thinker. It has even less to do with his ideological pedigree or legal background or rhetorical skills. Yes, as the many profiles prove, he has considerable intelligence and not a little guile. But so do others, not least his formidably polished and practiced opponent Senator Hillary Clinton.

[snip]

At its best, the Obama candidacy is about ending a war—not so much the war in Iraq, which now has a momentum that will propel the occupation into the next decade—but the war within America that has prevailed since Vietnam and that shows dangerous signs of intensifying, a nonviolent civil war that has crippled America at the very time the world needs it most. It is a war about war—and about culture and about religion and about race. And in that war, Obama—and Obama alone—offers the possibility of a truce.

Video of the Year

2008-08-07T11:04:00.001-05:00

Thanks, Dustin!

2008-07-25T11:38:00.001-05:00

Dustin gave me the link to the article "He ventured forth to bring light to the world." It's quite funny:

And it came to pass, in the eighth year of the reign of the evil Bush the Younger (The Ignorant), when the whole land from the Arabian desert to the shores of the Great Lakes had been laid barren, that a Child appeared in the wilderness.

The Child was blessed in looks and intellect. Scion of a simple family, offspring of a miraculous union, grandson of a typical white person and an African peasant. And yea, as he grew, the Child walked in the path of righteousness, with only the occasional detour into the odd weed and a little blow.

When he was twelve years old, they found him in the temple in the City of Chicago, arguing the finer points of community organisation with the Prophet Jeremiah and the Elders. And the Elders were astonished at what they heard and said among themselves: “Verily, who is this Child that he opens our hearts and minds to the audacity of hope?”
Continue Reading "He ventured forth to bring light to the world"

History Lesson

2008-07-23T16:15:00.000-05:00

I Love The Onion

2008-07-17T17:09:00.002-05:00

From their article "Hubble Kaleidoscope Finds Evidence Of Space Looking All Crazy":

BALTIMORE—Astronomers analyzing the first images captured by the new Hubble Space Kaleidoscope, which went online Tuesday, announced that they've acquired the first concrete evidence that the universe is in a constant state of total weirdness.

"With their unprecedented resolution, the latest images from the new kaleidoscope reveal that space, once thought to be isotropic, is actually continuously expanding, unfolding, and rearranging in a series of freaky patterns," said astronomer Douglas Stetler, head of the Space Kaleidoscope Science Institute in Baltimore. "It's an exciting time for the field of astrokaleidoscopics, or anyone interested in the vast, wacked-out nature of space."

Satirizing the Satire

2008-07-15T11:10:00.001-05:00

You've probably seen this New Yorker cover by now. I thought it was funny, but as an editor I don't think I would have run it. Too many people are too stupid.

This parody from the of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer put an edge to my thoughts on the matter.

I think there would have been a little more outrage about the second one.

Washington Loses Another

2008-07-12T16:25:00.000-05:00

Today former Presidential Press Secretary Tony Snow died from cancer. He was by far the best of Bush's press secretaries, even Ari Fleischer. Snow approached the press with an ironical respect that laughed off story-hunting quasi-journalists, but took serious questions seriously. Though I thought he was on the wrong side on many major issues, especially the Iraq war, but I respected Tony Snow and, even beyond his talent as spokesman for conservative ideas, I am certain that he was a good man.

Obama's Move to the Center

2008-07-11T16:10:00.000-05:00

Michael wrote:

I spent a day reading about how Obama may or may not be a flip-flopper. Here's a few issues: not accepting public funding for his general election campaign after promising to do so, promising to w/draw from Iraq in 16 mos. and now claiming he will "refine" his positions, threatening a filibuster and later voting in support of FISA, deriding NAFTA and then claiming it was overheated campaign rhetoric, not to mention rather conservative stances on gun control, the death penalty and faith based initiatives. What's your take?

I actually thought about posting on this topic last week, but the urge passed until I read this comment. My general take: Obama is a pragmatic, non-ideological candidate who was always more centrist than he was made out to be (often by his own silence) in the primary. During the primary, he emphasized his sincere liberal positions and muted his sincere centrist, even conservative tendacies. Now that calculus has flipped. Frankly, I think the general election Obama is the more natural Obama, and the one I like more, even though I still maintain that it's a matter of emphasis, not a genuine change of position.

Let me address a few things in particular:

Campaign Finance
It was a shift, but not a major one. Obama had always left himself caveats and escape hatches in all his previous statements. I, for one, don't want completely publicly-financed elections, so the damage Obama's move supposedly does to that goal is welcome from my point of view.

FISA
Obama accepted a legislative compromise. I think he got it wrong. Those companies should not be immune from lawsuit. They should have known better, legally, than to have joined the Bush administration for its long-term domestic spying program.

Iraq
I see no -- NONE, at all -- change in Obama's position. He has always, as anyone should who expects to actually govern, guarded his ability to be flexible. I admire how Obama views withdrawal. He, the civillian Commander in Chief, sets the strategy -- the mission -- and lets his generals decide how to tactically carry out that strategy. President Bush doesn't understand this distinction, or at least acts like he doesn't. He acts like his hands are tied by the generals, but forgets the fundamental American idea that elected, civillian officials control the military, not the other way around. Obama has always had a goal -- a strategy -- to leave Iraq in 16 months. That goal remains. All he said recently was that he would be open to making adjustments to his tactics of reaching that goal, meaning, in real terms, it might take 18 months or 14 months or some other minor adjustment.

Guns
Obama's position has always been complex. He has always basically agreed that individuals have the personal right to own a firearm, but that position is balanced by Obama's belief that the state has the ability to put reasonable restrictions on that right. In this, as he is so often, Obama is a both/and candidate, not, like the baby boomers, an either/or candidate.

To sum up, Obama is not a typical Democrat, or a typical politician. He is not bound to ideology, but wants to figure out what works. If he wins this fall and governs in the same way he has campaigned, he will have a great opportunity to solve big problems, or at least advance the conversation past the current boundaries.

An Olive Branch

2008-07-06T16:16:00.000-05:00

The Washington Post's On Faith column today printed an open letter to Obama and McCain, urging them to bring peace to the culture wars that have ravaged American politics for forty years. I hope the candidates and the country heed this plea:

Dear Senators McCain and Obama:

For our entire lives, America has been polarized by an angry culture war over such divisive issues as abortion and gay rights. It has been a fight marked by sincere passion and principles on the one hand, but also by stridency, vituperation, and lack of respect for the opposing sides’ motives and beliefs on the other.

We write to you from two traditionally warring camps, one evangelical and one progressive, joined in one voice and one vision, to offer an olive branch to end the culture wars. This olive branch is not a surrender, but a new approach that allows each of you to maintain your core principles, just as we have maintained ours, and heal a nation that is tired of the fight. This approach is based on common ground and common values.

Continue Reading "Call for Culture War Truce"

A Warning for McCain

2008-07-06T13:42:00.002-05:00

A few months ago I was watching Frank Luntz on a panel on c-span, and he made a lot of fascinating and, I believe, accurate points about winning elections. One thing he said particularly struck me: Luntz pointed out that he couldn't remember one moment during the 2004 campaign when John Kerry smiled. Kerry was a frustrated candidate, and his frustration inhibited America, and even many Democrats, from rallying to his candidacy.

I have been noticing something similar with John McCain's bid this cycle. Ever since the general election started, McCain has seemed disappointed. Whenever he comments on Obama on television, McCain looks disenchanted, like Obama has personally let him down. McCain drops his head, talks softly and glumly, his lips hovering above the mic. It's a really boring way of making one's point.

I know McCain can be a very lively, funny, entertaining campaigner. I've seen him at a townhall, and he was all of those things, but his television persona has not reflected that charisma. At all. He doesn't seem like the "happy warrior."

His surrogates, like the eternal party pooper Joe Lieberman, suffer from the same problem. As proof, here's Lindsay Graham from a couple of weeks ago.

The Senator from South Carolina sounds like he's about to start crying. Now, who gets excited by that?

I seem to agree with this guy a lot...

2008-07-04T10:56:00.000-05:00

Website of the Week: Dobson Doesn't Speak for Me

2008-06-27T16:40:00.000-05:00

In 2006, Barack Obama gave the keynote address to a group of Christians gathered for the Call to Renewal Conference (search Barack Obama on iTunes and you can listen to the whole thing for free). I found it a sublime argument for the way that faith and secular government converge. Obama demonstrates how essential Christianity is in shaping policy, but also reminded Christians to make their policy cases in terms that even non-believers can accept, terms subject to rational argument. Well, surprise, surprise, James Dobson doesn't want to make rational arguments for his policy positions, so he blasted Obama this week for a "fruitcake" view of the constitution. Dobson's diatribe caused Pastor Kirbyjon Caldwell, the leader of the largest Methodist congregation in America and the man who both introduced George Bush at the 2000 Republican convention and married Jenna Bush to her new husband, to create this website:
JamesDobsonDoesn'tSpeakForMe [dot] com.

It says, in part,

James Dobson doesn't speak for me.

He doesn't speak for me when he uses religion as a wedge to divide;

He doesn't speak for me when he speaks as the final arbiter on the meaning of the Bible;

James Dobson doesn't speak for me when he uses the beliefs of others as a line of attack;

He doesn't speak for me when he denigrates his neighbor's views when they don't line up with his;

He doesn't speak for me when he seeks to confine the values of my faith to two or three issues alone...

Okay...

2008-06-25T20:41:00.001-05:00

This website made me want to post again:

More Muslim Than Obama [dot] Com

Morte

2008-06-24T18:56:00.001-05:00

I'm thinking of killing off this site. The general election won't have any blood-boiling excitement until after I've left the country.

Video of the Day: Big, Bad John

2008-06-18T17:46:00.002-05:00

How Texas Senator John Cornyn was actually introduced at the Texas Republican convention:

(hat tip: A.S.)

It wasn't all good news from the convention though...

If it's Sunday

2008-06-13T17:43:00.002-05:00

Today American journalism lost its greatest, Tim Russert, host of Meet the Press on NBC. Tim asked the most serious questions in the most serious fashion, both allowing his guests time to respond and forcing them to talk forthrightly to the American public. He often said that if politicians can't answert tough questions, they shouldn't hold jobs making tough decisions.

Many are predicting that the era of "old media," meaning television networks and big print outlets, is ending. If so, Tim's death may be the surest signal of that end.

Viral Grab Bag: Like a Tiny Little Elf

2008-06-10T13:51:00.001-05:00

Here's a quick round-up of some...well, interesting... and funny videos from the series of tubes.

McCain Girls sing "McCainiac."

"Morning Joe" takes on Fox's E.D. Hill and her analysis of the Michelle-Barack "fist pound." (She asked if it might be a "terrorist fist jab.")

And my favorite, a fair-minded, truly funny video from the conservative Townhall.com: "Obama on my Shoulder." Unfortunately, you have to watch a commercial first; but it's worth it.

Goodbye, George W. - Hello, World

2008-06-10T09:15:00.001-05:00

The Movement

2008-06-08T18:38:00.000-05:00

Barack talks to his staff.

Our Long National Nightmare is Over

2008-06-07T10:31:00.000-05:00

The Clintons are behind us.

I wanted to link to two must-reads for today, the day - we all hope - Clinton finally gets out of the way.

The Politico's Ben Smith writes that Clinton lost the primary not because of bad strategy or staff problems, but because she was a flawed candidate and a poor manager and leader.

But at the heart of the campaign was a candidate who changed little, and whose managerial weaknesses — loyalty, distance and a damaging indecisiveness — became central features of her campaign, from the January day that she was forced into a premature announcement of her run to the hour that she was forced to withdraw. To a striking degree, the campaign was propelled by outside forces and its own mistakes, rather than by anything resembling a plan.

Read "As campaign ends, was Clinton to blame?" (great title there, Ben)

Also today, Peggy Noonan offers what I think is the right perspective on the Democratic race. She starts by dwelling on the significance of Obama's accomplishment:

But what I thought of when the friend sent the flash [headline that Obama had won] was something another friend told me months ago. It was the night Mr. Obama won Alabama. My friend was watching on TV, in his suburban den. His 10-year-old daughter walked in, looked, saw "Obama Wins" and "Alabama." She said, "Daddy, we saw a documentary on Martin Luther King Day in school." She said, "That's where they used the hoses." Suddenly my friend saw it new. That's the place they used the water hoses on the civil rights marchers crossing the bridge. And now look. The black man thanking Alabama for his victory.

What kind of place makes a change like this? Only a great nation. We should love it tenderly every day of our lives.

Noonan also turns her sights on the runner-up:

Mrs. Clinton would have been a disaster as president. Mr. Obama may prove a disaster, and John McCain may, but she would be. Mr. Obama may lie, and Mr. McCain may lie, but she would lie. And she would have brought the whole rattling caravan of Clintonism with her—the scandal-making that is compulsive, the drama that is unending, the sheer, daily madness that is her, and him.

We have been spared this. Those who did it deserve to be thanked. May I rise in a toast to the Democratic Party.

Read "Recoil Election"

40 Years Later

2008-06-06T18:42:00.002-05:00

I asked my parents not long ago what they remembered of the sixties, espcially 1968 when they were 10 years old. They both pointed to Bobby Kennedy's assassination and the national mourning that followed, the train that rode from California to Washington and the crowds that gathered by the tracks.

The Nominee

2008-06-04T18:28:00.000-05:00

(hat tip: Lynn Sweet)

This Time Tomorrow

2008-06-03T11:12:00.000-05:00

Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee for President. As I write, he is within 40 delegates of clinching the nomination and will only need to split the delegates available in tonight’s contests and pick up around only 10 percent of remaining superdelegates to seize it. When he does so, he will have accomplished something amazing in American politics: he will have defeated the Clinton dynasty, the machine Bill and Hillary have built for twenty years. He has taken their party and made it his own.

More importantly, he will have become the first African American Presidential nominee for either party. And he will have done so by rejecting the anger of a previous generation of black politicians, but also without abandoning the black community and their needs. He has been, as he is in almost all things, the middle road. This is a moment of great progress for our nation.

Now, as the secure nominee of his party, Obama can turn and face Senator McCain head-on. There are major issues facing our country – an unwise war with an uncertain endgame, an ongoing terrorist threat, an energy crisis that holds the threat of recession and foreign dependency or the promise of a new economic boom, a healthcare system that needs a total rehaul, and a wealth gap between the poorest and the most wealthy that continues to widen. Obama and McCain offer a stark contrast on all of these issues, and their differences are essentially generational. McCain offers a worldview shaped by the Cold War and the culture wars. Obama holds out the promise of new policies that are in tune with a new world.

My hope for his Presidency has not been disillusioned by his candidacy. On the contrary, it has strengthened, become more robust as he endured through this primary. As Andrew Sullivan wrote so long ago, “We may in fact have finally found that bridge to the 21st century that Bill Clinton told us about. Its name is Obama.”

McCain Visits Nashville

2008-06-03T00:43:00.003-05:00

Today my grandfather, father, and I went to a McCain Townhall Meeting in Nashville, TN. My dad and I took the pictures below.

About ten to fifteen protestors in Bush masks showed up outside about a half hour before the doors opened.

Inside, John Rich of Big-and-Rich(?) warmed up the crowd. He opened with "Walk the Line," which, as a song about a husband's duty to stay faithful to his wife, I felt was an appropriate message for Republicans who may have to "walk the line" and vote for McCain in the fall, even if he wasn't their first choice. Rich also led us in a "big Hell Yes!" for Senator McCain.

McCain waiting in the wings.

McCain started the townhall with a few prepared remarks, including a skewering of Obama's opposition to the "surge." Here he is reading quotes from the Illinois Senator predicting the folly of a surge back in early 2007.

Bill Frist and Fred Thompson were there for moral support.

Okay. That picture of Fred above was a little misleading. He was just slumped over, not sleeping. Here McCain lets Frist help out on a health care question.

McCain spent most of the meeting fielding questions from the audience. As with most Q&A's, a lot of crazies raced to the microphones first. McCain showed good humor in dealing with several weird questions, including this one from an Iraq vet turned poet: "You were one of the people who self-admittedly never read the intelligence before authorizing the invasion; can you tell me who the Poet Laureate of the United States is? It's a Presidentially-appointed, congressionally-approved position." McCain's response: "Got me."

(For the record, as I knew beforehand, it's Robert Pinsky.)

Bending the Rules, Fairly

2008-05-31T22:21:00.001-05:00

Today the DNC's Rules and Bylaws committee met to decide the fate of the Michigan and Florida delegations. They will allow both delegations to go in full to the convention, but each delegate will only have a .5 vote for the nominee. FirstRead has the simple explanation of the consequences.

I was able to watch the Florida arguments before my family hit the road for Nashville. It was some of the best tv I've seen in a while. The Obama team played the whole day brilliantly, allowing the states to make their cases and generously giving in to the most reasonable demands. I think the day was a net plus for him; it didn't change much, just made a new "magic number" - 2,118 - leaving him about 65 delegates away from sealing the nomination.

In other news, Obama told Trinity United that he and Michelle will no longer be members.

The Grabbag: The Storm Fiend Did Laugh

2008-05-29T19:51:00.002-05:00

Fox News gives owner Murdoch the full Fox treatment - "Al-Qaeda Supporter," "Left Wing Smear Merchant," "Looney Liberal" - after Murdoch praises Obama.

Obama within 50 delegates, depending on this weekend's meeting.

Pelosi says it can't go to August.

Ricky Martin endorses Clinton; Andrew Sullivan calls this big Puerto Ricko catch "more evidence of...inexplicable gay support for the Clintons."

McClellan, probably the worst Press Secretary in history, hits the air waves deriding the administration. As someone who literally danced in the street in the rain when Tom Brokaw finally called Florida for Bush in 2000, I can empathize with McClellan's disillusionment (as can about 70% of the country).

Young Hillary Clinton.

Great electoral college site.

One of the nerdiest things ever.

"The Tay Bridge Disaster" is considered the worst poem ever written - worth reading to the last stanza.

Website of the Week

2008-05-27T17:00:00.000-05:00

IsBarackObamaMuslim [dot] com

A True Unity Ticket

2008-05-24T18:04:00.001-05:00

David Ignatius makes a convincing case for something the Schellhase family has been wishing for: an Obama-Hagel ticket:

There are all sorts of practical arguments against such an unconventional choice -- not least that it would upset many of Obama's liberal Democratic supporters. But it would make a powerful statement that Obama really does want to govern in a different way. It would make "change we can believe in" more than a slogan.
Continue Reading "A Test for Obama's Promises"

What do you think, readers? Would an Obama-Hagel ticket - as useful for governance as it might be - work as a winning political move in the fall? What other veeps are interesting to you, for Obama or McCain?

Hideous

2008-05-23T16:13:00.001-05:00

Providing the most sickening rationale of staying in the race yet, Hillary Clinton today reminded an editorial board that Robert Kennedy was assassinated, in June.

In other words, someone might kill Obama, so she better stick around.

Here's the video:

The Facebook Election

2008-05-22T22:24:00.002-05:00

Young people unite! According to this Reader's Digest article, we can make a difference!

Political Grab Bag

2008-05-21T20:07:00.004-05:00

Novick loses.

McCain's sought-out endorser Hagee claimed that God wanted Hitler, his "hunter," to drive the Jews out of Europe.

Clinton spins Florida, comparing counting disbarred primary votes to the civil rights movement and women's suffrage. (Quick note: Clinton is arguing that by not counting the votes in Florida voters are being "punished" when they didn't do anything wrong. Actually, they did. The voters in Florida voted in state representatives who made the decision to break DNC rules. That's how democracy works, not by spontaneous referendums, but by regularly scheduled elections. Voters give their voice to representatives who make policy. If Florida feels "punished," there is a simple democratic solution: dump the state representatives during the next regularly scheduled election.)

Obama hits McCain's lobbyist problems.

Ferraro pushes sexism narrative, Clinton piles on, and the Village Voice sarcastically responds:

Currently pregnant with the next generation, let me just say this: There is no greater wish that a mother can have for her daughter than that she will exploit poor people, obliterate Iran, and win rigged class president elections, Putin-style. (Mom, I won 100 percent of the vote!)

And finally, Lieberman authors "Democrats and Our Enemies," an op-ed for McCain; Hagel sticks up for Obama.

Ad of the Week

2008-05-19T19:45:00.003-05:00

Beyond voting for the President tomorrow, Oregon Democrats will decide who they want to send against Republican incumbent Gordon Smith. The Democratic establishment is backing Jeff Merkley, the speaker of the state legislature, but Merkley has encountered a surprisingly strong opponent in Steve Novick, a long-time environmental activist. Novick is an unusual candidate. Born with significant medical challenges, he stands only at 4'9", has a hook for a left hand, and embraces these aspects of his identity, calling himself "The Fighter with the Hard Left Hook." Below is an ad he's running right now in Oregon.

Tomorrow night's results in the senate primary are an important footnote to the big news of the Presidential race. Novick's strong bid against the party insider is further proof that the nation is in a surly "throw-the-bastards-out" mood.

75,000!!

2008-05-18T19:15:00.002-05:00

Yes, Obama spoke today to a crowd larger than the population of Fayetteville, larger than the capacity of Razorback stadium. The fire marshal estimates 75,000 came to see Obama speak at Waterfront Park in Portland, Oregon. This is the largest crowd of the campaign.

Stunning video here.

UPDATE: Local band The Decemberists opened, calling the event "the best opening gig we've had for sure."

"Well, tell me what he did."

2008-05-15T22:35:00.001-05:00

Why I love Chris Matthews:
(watch to the end; it's well worth it)

Bill Bennett and Lieberman Get Chatty

2008-05-15T08:33:00.000-05:00

Yesterday, Joe Lieberman appeared on Bill Bennett's radio show. They had a good ole time gabbing about Hillary:

BENNETT: Listen, I give her credit. She has found her…three things. She’s found her voice. He is very much in the background now, it’s not this, you know, ventriloquial thing, it’s definitely her voice.

LIEBERMAN: That’s true.

BENNETT: And Joe, you know, this is my style. This is a girl who puts on her pearls, goes down, throws down a shot of liquor and bombs Iran, you know. This is…lookout Mrs. Bennett, this is my kind of girl.

LIEBERMAN: [Chuckle, chuckle] It does have an appeal to it.

Audio here.

Last Night's Big Story

2008-05-14T15:28:00.003-05:00

In the third special election of the year, a Democrat took a Republican congressional seat. Last night, Travis Childers beat Republican Greg Davis for a place in the Mississippi congressional delegation. Republicans tried to nationalize the contest by running the ad above, connecting Childers to Obama to Wright. But the connection failed to make a difference, and Childers won by 8 points, 54 - 46. As Jonathan Martin of the Politico put it,

For downballot Democrats worried about an Obama drag, tonight's results are heartening -- Mississippi's First Congressional District includes some of whitest counties in a heavily African-American state and was the only one Hillary Clinton won in the March primary.

Mountain Mama

2008-05-13T20:35:00.000-05:00

Hillary Clinton just wrapped up her WV victory speech, and although Terry McAuliffe said it would be one of the greatest speechest ever given, it was fairly humdrum. She basically said she wants the superdelegates to give the nomination to her despite all measurable means of victory pointing to Obama. My take: Clinton either truly believes that Obama cannot win in November, partially because of race and more because of "cultural" issues; either that, or she cares more about her own career than our country. They're ugly options, but that's all she's left us.

Bold Predictions - West Virginia

2008-05-13T10:48:00.001-05:00

CLINTON 63 - 37 OBAMA

Yes, it's going to be a blowout, but the Obama campaign is largely ignoring the state, looking forward to May 20th when they believe they will seal a mathematical lead in pledged delegates. Many think Obama may "declare victory" on May 20th, though I think he'll wait until he has 2,025 total delegates, including supers. Still, he is already turning to the general election, spending today not in the primary state of West Virginia, but in the general election bellweather of Missouri.

I've also heard people on television talk about Senator Clinton bowing out on a high note tonight, but I doubt it. She will wait, at least, until May 31st when the DNC makes a decision about Florida and Michigan. You see, her campaign has just started saying that 2,209, which includes the disbarred delegations of the two rule-breaking states, is the magic number for securing the nomination, not the long-established 2,025.

SNL on HRC

2008-05-11T19:03:00.000-05:00

Relief

2008-05-09T14:32:00.001-05:00

The way the Obama campaign dramatically beat expectations in both states Tuesday night has, in the minds of many, wrapped up the nomination for him. I, a long-time Obama follower, was relieved: it was the first good night since Wisconsin. Now, the superdelegates will begin to break. So far it hasn't been a flood, but a steady flow. He's within three of overtaking Clinton's long-held lead. You can follow the flow at the Politico superdelegate page.

I have to say I'm ready for the general election. I'm ready to stop hearing about bowling and taking shots and start hearing about foreign policy philosophy, healthcare solutions, energy alternatives, and all the other major issues that face our nation. Thankfully, we have two candidates - perhaps the only two candidates (except maybe Huckabee) - who are genuinely ready for a serious national conversation. Good job, America. It's about time the parties made their cases like adults.

A Good Night

2008-05-06T23:09:00.002-05:00

As of this moment, it's a large, 14 point win for Obama in North Carolina. They are still counting in Indiana; right now, it's a 1.8 point lead for Clinton.

No matter what is still to happen tongiht, the Obama campaign has cause to celebrate. Their 210,000 vote win in NC puts the popular vote almost certainly out of reach of the Clinton campaign, even if Florida counts. The narrow margin in Indiana means - at the very least - a moral victory for the campaign. If it somehow becomes a literal victory, I expect a superdelegate deluge toward Obama. If it somehow becomes a literal victory, Obama has won the nomination tonight.

Bold Predictions - May 6th

2008-05-06T09:48:00.000-05:00

So I'm 0-2 (at least on the margins; I've picked the winner on both occasions), and as Michael pointed out, in my last prediction the percentage margin was larger than the actual margin of votes cast! But, like any good pundit, I'm going to keep making irresponsibly precise predictions, mainly for the fun of it.

North Carolina:

Obama 54 - 45 Clinton

Indiana:

Clinton 53 - 47 Obama

Think you can do better? (Westin, let's see you repeat your Pennsylvania clairvoyance). Leave your predictions in the comment section below.

A "Horserace" Metaphor?

2008-05-05T11:29:00.003-05:00

Last week the two democratic candidates picked their favorites to win the Kentucky Derby. Obama picked Cononel John, but didn't make too much of it. Clinton, on the other hand, decided to make her choice symbolic: she picked the girl horse, Eight Belles, known as a fighter.

Let's see how that worked out.

This clip starts with an eerily/hilariously prophetic "Morning Joe" segment from Friday and cuts to footage from the derby.

Yes, that's right, Big Brown won by coming out of no where! And the filly fought so hard to come in second she had to be put down. Are you listening, superdelegates?

Bold Predictions - Guam Edition

2008-05-02T18:15:00.006-05:00

OBAMA 54 - 46 CLINTON

UPDATE:
After an all-nighter vote count Obama won Guam by 7 votes - 2,264 to 2,257.

Isn't democracy beautiful?

Iranians for Obama

2008-05-01T19:48:00.000-05:00

Time just interviewed one of Iran's most influential dissident journalists. Here's some of what he said:

Iranians love the U.S. Surprisingly, many Iranians differentiate between U.S. politics and American people or culture. People think that their government’s animosity toward America has done more harm than good. I’ve grown up with two myths about the United States: Ayatollah Khomeini’s depiction of the U.S. as “Great Satan” on one hand, and the idea of the American dream on the other. Many Iranians prefer to choose the second option. So I write about the myths of America and the real America. The Islamic government spends lots of money to create a dark, evil picture of the U.S. — the same picture that the Bush administration creates of Iran. I simply share my firsthand experience and write about different aspects of this country that people in Iran cannot see.

[snip]

Many Iranians are obsessed with Barack Obama. If he goes to Iran, I’m sure he could fill Tehran’s Azadi Stadium, which has a capacity of 100,000. To a large extent this is because of the nature of Obama’s message about change and hope. Iranian people truly want to change their situation, get rid of decades of marginalization and restore their reputation in the world. They feel connected to his message of change. They are tired of living under the threat of economic sanctions and military attacks. Obama’s remark about initiating a dialogue with Iran translated for many Iranians into hopes of normalizing the relationship between the countries and Iran rejoining the international community.

This is one of Obama's key strengths as a potential President. He can uniquely rally the world to America's side again, correcting one of the Bush adminstration's most fatal failures - dismissing soft power as weakness. America is the most powerful nation in the world. We should not be afraid of engaging even enemy nations more fully.

Picture an American President descending the steps of Air Force One on a foreign tarmac and being greeted not with protests, but with cheers.

Smart Move

2008-04-29T17:48:00.000-05:00

"What we saw yesterday out of Reverend Wright was a resurfacing and, I believe, an exploitation of those old divisions, whatever his intentions, that was the result. It is antithetical to our campaign, it is antithetical to what I am about. It is not what I think America stands for."

Here's Andrew Sullivan's take.

Oh'reillary?

2008-04-29T14:40:00.000-05:00

Set your DVRs. Drudge reports that Hillary Clinton will be on the O'reilly Factor tomorrow night. This move continues the bizarre narrative of the Democratic primary, in which Hillary embraces the Bush-Rove approach to defeating Obama.

And yes, that title is the noise Scooby Doo made when he heard the news.

Age

2008-04-28T22:59:00.000-05:00

Extrapolations* of how each candidate will look after four years of being President:

I think Obama's transformation is the most interesting. McCain and Clinton just look like they don't have their tv make-up on.

*From the HuffPo.

Dear Barack

2008-04-28T15:01:00.000-05:00

Karl Rove writes a surprising genial and useful letter to Obama.

Hillary is a PC. Obama is a Mac.

2008-04-26T16:00:00.000-05:00

I spotted this article this morning and immediately knew that it was the most well thought-out argument relating to the democratic race so far. Enjoy it here.

Headline of the Day

2008-04-24T15:12:00.000-05:00

From the NY Times:

Brazil: Rescuers Fail to Find Priest Carried Aloft by Party Balloons

Rescuers have reached a cluster of brightly colored party balloons floating in the ocean off Brazil’s coast, but did not find the Roman Catholic priest who had been using them...
Continue Reading "Brazil: Rescuers Fail..."

Post-Mortem

2008-04-23T12:54:00.000-05:00

So, the Clinton campaign has delayed the general election by at least another two weeks, but other than that - oh, and the build-up of anti-Obama talking points for the GOP - the race remains unchanged. Although I ached when the gap widened from 8 to 10 last night (technically it stands at 9.3, pre-rounding to whole numbers), there is, as always, a silver-lining.

1. From TNR:

As Chuck Todd just pointed out on MSNBC, tonight pretty much spells the end of Hillary's chance to win the nomination based on pledged delegates; she'll need to win 70 to 80 percent of pledged delegates from here on out in order to do so, and that's not going to happen. Which, of course, is why Terry McAuliffe was on the very same network arguing that the nomination should be decided by the total number of votes cast. If you count Michigan and Florida (the former of which Hillary once upon a time said didn't count), then she could win there.

2. Last night Howard Fineman of Newsweek made the point that Obama may have done to Clinton what Reagan did to Russia: he spent her into the ground. By putting $10 million into television ads and direct mailers, the Obama campaign forced the Clinton campaign to pour more money into a state that should have been - and, we now know, was - her stronghold. Terry McAulliffe is already boasting that Clinton brought in $2.5 million last night, but that figure just barely gets her campaign out of their March debt. Going forward into Indiana and North Carolina, Obama may have the organizational and financial advantages for a big two-win night. If he wins both contests, superdelegates will have permission to flock to his candidacy and push him over the 2025 edge, securing him the nomination.

We'll see.

Bold Predictions

2008-04-22T14:14:00.000-05:00

CLINTON 53 - 46 OBAMA

What do you think, reader?

Cringe-worthy

2008-04-21T21:06:00.000-05:00

All the Presidential candidates filmed spots for tonight's WWE event (match?). None of them came off very well reading "jokes" that someone else obviously wrote.

Glory!

2008-04-20T21:22:00.000-05:00

Okay, maybe not glory. But I was cited on Politico today.

After I posted this afternoon, I emailed Ben Smith, who blogs/reports about the Democratic race on Politico.

From: "John E. Schellhase" jeschel@uark.edu
Sent: Sunday, April 20, 2008 1:13 pm
To: bsmith@politico.com

Subject: Obama Stump Adjustment

Ben,Via C-SPAN, I've been watching Obama give his stump speech since Iowa, and last night I noticed an adjustment to his usual closing remarks. He used to conclude, "We're going to win this nomination, we're going to win the general election, we're going to change this country, and we're going to change the world. Thank you, [city name]. I love you." Yesterday in during his whistestop tour of Pennsylvania, he finished up by saying, "Thank you, Harrisburg. God bless you. And God bless the United States of America." This switch seems to be a quiet acknowledgment of the brewing negative narrative about the Illinois Senator and a subtle pushback against it.

John Schellhase

Fayetteville, AR

Ben wrote back.

From: Ben Smith bsmith@politico.com

Sent: Sunday, April 20, 2008 2:01
To: "John E. Schellhase" jeschel@uark.edu

Subject: RE: Obama Stump Adjustment

a great point. just blogged it.

Here's a screen shot of the post.

Yes, the "reader" is me. Pretty cool, as far as I'm concerned.

Subtle

2008-04-20T03:04:00.000-05:00

I'm not sure how long he has been doing this, but Obama has made a subtle, but significant change to the end of his stump speech. He used to conclude, "We're going to win this nomination, we're going to win the general election, we're going to change this country, and we're going to change the world. Thank you, [city name]. I love you." Yesterday during his whistlestop tour of Pennsylvania, he finished up by saying, "Thank you, Harrisburg. God bless you. And God bless the United States of America."

Also, this was charming:

Uncelebrated Leadership

2008-04-18T19:48:00.000-05:00

Howard Dean was on the air again last night telling the Democratic superdelegates that they need to make a decision between Hillary and Barack as soon as possible, by June at the latest. The DNC Chairman has often been under fire lately. Many blame him for the protracted conflict and for destroying any chance for revotes in Florida and Michigan. These critics wonder, Why hasn’t Dean more loudly told the campaigns to get their acts together?

Contrary to the conventional wisdom, I think Dean has been a superb DNC Chairman. Now, I'm biased to like the Governor. I carefully followed his 2004 campaign, watching him rise from nowhere to frontrunner status and then “crash and burn in an Iowa cornfield,” as his campaign manager Joe Trippi would put it later. Dean offered the most convincing case against the Iraq war while most Democrats were falling in line with President Bush. Dean’s gaffe-prone honesty was very appealing to me, and much of what he said struck home. For example, Dean’s statement that the capture of Saddam Hussein did not make our country safer – a comment that deeply hurt him at the time – seems prophetic four years later.

In many ways, the 2004 Dean campaign laid the ground for Obama’s current run. Dean for America created a sub-culture of the Democratic party that looked distrustfully at the most powerful leaders of the party, including people like Harry Reid, John Kerry, and Bill Clinton. Even more significantly, the way that Dean and Trippi raised money on the internet was truly groundbreaking, and Obama – and Ron Paul, for that matter – has capitalized on the this new source of political power. Back then, the Dean campaign called it the “$100 Revolution,” arguing that true campaign finance reform came from taking power away from the big, well-connected fundraisers and putting it in the hands of normal people. And the revolution has come to pass: Obama has raised $150 million dollars with an average donation of $109. Dean, unfortunately, was the wrong candidate to lead the movement into power. But he did the groundwork.

As DNC Chairman, Dean is still primarily laying the groundwork for future Democratic success. He has employed a Fifty State Strategy that works to advance Democratic priorities and policies in places that are usually hostile to the Democratic party. For example, in a New York Times Magazine piece, Matt Bai reports that on one trip to Alaska – by no means, a Democratic stronghold – Dean refused to do an interview with the liberal Air America unless his staff also set up a few chances for him to talk to local conservative radio hosts. This approach, under Dean’s leadership, deserves most of the credit for the sweeping Democratic victories of 2006, far more credit than Raum Emmanuel and Nancy Pelosi.

Before the current cycle started, the most common complaints about the primary calendar were that it ended to quickly that the early states had all the power. Now, naturally, there are new complaints. But the primary process, as supervised by Governor Dean, has worked remarkably well. It has allowed a relatively unknown candidate with no national campaign network to become the frontrunner for the nomination against the formerly “inevitable” Clinton. As for Michigan and Florida, whose state parties willingly broke the rules, Dean has been both firm about his convictions and willing to proceed with common sense solutions, and so he has probably prevented future primary problems and also left room for seating delegations from the offending states. Moreover, Dean’s leadership among the superdelegates has enabled the process to move forward with ease and has shown fairness to both sides. He hasn’t caved to pressure for public declarations, opting instead for more useful private conversations with both campaigns.

Moving forward, Dean has advocated that the party coalesce around a nominee by the end June. Based on his past record, the Democrats would be wise to listen to him.

Video of the Day

2008-04-16T15:58:00.000-05:00

Via Ben Smith:

Stewart on "Bitter" Gaffe

2008-04-15T15:39:00.000-05:00

Since 2004 The Daily Show has lost some of its best correspondents/writers, like Ed Helms, Stephen Colbert, and Rob Corddry, but last night they were back to their old form.

Beyond the laughs, here are two smart, well-argued articles on how hurtful the Obama gaffe will be going forward.

"Woe Is He" by John B. Judis of The New Republic
"Candidate on a High Horse" by George Will of the Washington Post

Talking Past Each Other

2008-04-15T14:54:00.000-05:00

This year's flap over the perennial charge of elitism has reminded me of something I noticed during the Bush-Kerry race in 2004, Democrats and Republicans define elitism differently.

To Democrats, Republicans are elitists because they’re rich and their policies favor Wall Street and corporations. Four years ago, Dems charged Bush with elitism because he was the son of a President and because he served in the National Guard in Alabama during the Vietnam war. Similarly, Dick Cheney had five or six deferments. They’re looking out, the argument goes, for their wealthy, well-connected friends.

To Republicans, Democrats are elitists because they have an attitude of superiority. We hear it in how Republicans describe tax policy: the Democrats, the GOP says, think they know how to spend your money better than you do. Democrats also get hit with the charge of being out of touch with middle America. Kerry got slammed with the images of him snowboarding and windsurfing because most regular people can’t afford such hobbies. Too often, the slur “limousine liberal” rings true.

Both sides are disingenuous. They’re all extremely wealthy, all years past living like most Americans. The likely nominees for November are no different. McCain is married to a grossly wealthy beer heiress. Obama has degrees from Columbia University and Harvard Law. They are the crème of the American crop, and we shouldn’t be too surprised that people like them are in the position of reaching the highest office in our government.

I would also add that being wealthy or highly educated doesn’t necessarily mean these politicians, on either side of the aisle, don’t care about the concerns of low-income Americans. I think many of them, including the frontrunners now, do care and are trying their best to develop policies that lead to more prosperity and more equality. They just disagree on how to get there.

Going for a Knockout

2008-04-14T23:50:00.000-05:00

Hillary Clinton is up with a man-on-the-street ad attacking Obama's recent comments:

The barrage of attacks on this subject give Obama the chance to be more forceful in his pushback against Clinton. As Chris Matthews often says, one of the keys to successful politicking is to "attack from a defensive position," and the Politico has a piece up now arguing that Obama is a classic counterpuncher. In fact, Obama seems to already be taking that tact:

If the Clinton team keeps after the "bitter" comments, they will give Obama an excuse to slam Clinton on reversals on NAFTA, including Bill Clinton and Mark Penn's lobbying on behalf of the Colombian government. The former President made almost a million dollars arguing against his wife's current position. I can easily imagine an Obama ad focused on this issue exactly, maybe with some "bitter" men and women on the street. The tagline: Hillary Clinton finds it perplexing that some Americans are bitter. Well, we understand: It's the economy, stupid. The Tuzla exaggeration could also easily appear in an ad.

In short, I believe the Obama team may have the chance to go for a Pennsylvania knockout and claim the nomination next Tuesday. I don't think they'll go as far as I've suggested here, but they would have the political cover to do so if the Clinton team continues driving the current story.

The Bitter Truth

2008-04-14T20:02:00.000-05:00

What Obama said:

So, it depends on where you are, but I think it's fair to say that the places where we are going to have to do the most work are the places where people are most cynical about government. The people are mis-appre...they're misunderstanding why the demographics in our, in this contest have broken out as they are. Because everybody just ascribes it to 'white working-class don't wanna work -- don't wanna vote for the black guy.' That's...there were intimations of that in an article in the Sunday New York Times today - kind of implies that it's sort of a race thing.

Here's how it is: in a lot of these communities in big industrial states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, people have been beaten down so long. They feel so betrayed by government that when they hear a pitch that is premised on not being cynical about government, then a part of them just doesn't buy it. And when it's delivered by -- it's true that when it's delivered by a 46-year-old black man named Barack Obama, then that adds another layer of skepticism.

[snip]

But the truth is, is that, our challenge is to get people persuaded that we can make progress when there's not evidence of that in their daily lives. You go into some of these small towns in Pennsylvania, and like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing's replaced them. And they fell through the Clinton administration, and the Bush administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not. And it's not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.

Now, when I first read these remarks I found them fairly unexceptional, but they have sparked the kind of manufactured outrage that has become part of our political discourse.

In this statement, Obama is talking about people's political commitments, not about traditional values. He is saying, I believe, that because people can't depend on government to keep its promises, they begin to participate in a politics that over-exagerates certain issues: namely, the 2nd amendment, religion in the public square, anti-immigration, and protectionism. These people, Obama implies, are angry at a government that doesn't hear their concerns and appears to be looking out more for the rights of the atheist who doesn't want to hear "under God" in the pledge or the immigrant who has broken into this country illegaly. This anger results in a belief that the government is working against them and their values -- hence, the ease Hillary Clinton and John McCain have had of exploiting these comments.

Now, I'll admit that I'm giving Obama a favorable reading. I would never approach an interpretation of a piece of literature in the same way, with so much focus on intentions and what was implied instead of what was said. But we should be a little more lenient to off-the-cuff spoken ideas, which the speaker can garble, than to written words, which we should assume have been chosen deliberately.

Also, while I find Obama's statement unremarkable, I'm sure it will hurt him politically. It was a bit bone-headed in its phrasing. We might call it a rookie mistake, and it reminds us that Obama, despite all his promise, is still a rookie at some of this -- though he learns quickly.

For a different take, read Bill Kristol's editorial from today's New York Times. It begins,

I haven’t read much Karl Marx since the early 1980s, when I taught political philosophy at the University of Pennsylvania. Still, it didn’t take me long this weekend to find my copy of “The Marx-Engels Reader,” edited by Robert C. Tucker — a book that was assigned in thousands of college courses in the 1970s and 80s, and that now must lie, unopened and un-remarked upon, on an awful lot of rec-room bookshelves.

My occasion for spending a little time once again with the old Communist was Barack Obama’s now-famous comment at an April 6 San Francisco fund-raiser. Continue Reading "The Mask Slips"

Andrew Sullivan responds:

Bill Kristol, trained in the same politics as Hillary Clinton, now argues that Obama's remarks in a fundraiser q and a are the "real Obama" - and that his voluminous writing and speaking about the sincerity of his own religious faith, and of others, are presumably "masks." Continue Reading "Now He's a Godless Commie"

Inaugural

2008-04-14T02:08:00.000-05:00

From "Choosing Among Generations" by David Ignatius

Nobody scored a knockout victory on Super Tuesday, but it's obvious who lost: the partisan voices on the wings of the two parties who have been arguing that Campaign 2008 would be about ideological purity rather than personality.

This nominating campaign has turned out to be a battle for the center. Continue reading "Choosing Among Generations"

Other Smart Takes by Ignatius
"The Value of Newness"

"The Obama Mystery"

"The Fading Jihadists"